Track record
The prediction ledger
Every forecast we publish goes here with a confidence tier and a resolve-by date. Open entries are unresolved. We do not delete misses.
Calibration
A confidence tier is a promise about how often we should be right. High-confidence calls should land far more often than low-confidence ones. Once predictions resolve, this table shows whether they do. Nothing has resolved yet, so nothing is scored. 8 predictions are open.
| Tier | Hits | Misses | Resolved | Open | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High confidence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Not yet scored |
| Medium confidence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Not yet scored |
| Low confidence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Not yet scored |
| Date | Prediction | Confidence | Resolve by | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | The Outpatient Surgery Access Act of 2026 (H.R.8091 / S.4963), which would tie ASC Medicare payment updates to the hospital market basket and drop the ASC budget-neutrality adjustment, does not clear committee or reach a floor vote in either chamber by December 31, 2026, continuing the pattern of identical bills introduced every Congress since 2021 that have never advanced. | High | Dec 31, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 21, 2026 | CMS's final TAVR NCD (expected by September 13, 2026) retains the dual-operator heart-team requirement (interventional cardiologist plus cardiac surgeon) despite the proposal to remove it, given unified pushback from five medical societies | Med | Sep 13, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Knox Lane's $437 million take-private acquisition of Cross Country Healthcare closes by the end of Q3 2026 as guided | High | Sep 30, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 12, 2026 | CY2027 Home Health PPS proposed rule behavior-adjustment cut survives into final rule (published ~Nov 2026) in some form despite industry comment pressure | Med | Nov 30, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 7, 2026 | The CY2027 Home Health final rule (expected by early November 2026) finalizes a permanent and/or temporary behavior-adjustment cut in some form despite industry comment pressure | Med | Nov 30, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 7, 2026 | DEA and HHS act before the December 31, 2026 expiration so telemedicine controlled-substance prescribing flexibility does not lapse (fifth extension or permanent rule) | High | Jan 1, 2027 | Open |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Following the July 31, 2026 comment close, 7-hydroxymitragynine (kratom compound) is placed in Schedule I by temporary scheduling order before the end of Q1 2027 | Med | Mar 31, 2027 | Open |
| Jul 6, 2026 | American Health Intel reaches 1,000 newsletter subscribers by September 1, 2026 | Low | Sep 1, 2026 | Open |