Track record
The prediction ledger
Every forecast we publish goes here with a confidence tier and a resolve-by date. Open entries are unresolved. We do not delete misses.
Calibration
A confidence tier is a promise about how often we should be right. High-confidence calls should land far more often than low-confidence ones. Once predictions resolve, this table shows whether they do. 1 resolved, 11 still open.
| Tier | Hits | Misses | Resolved | Open | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High confidence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Not yet scored |
| Medium confidence | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | Not yet scored |
| Low confidence | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Date | Prediction | Confidence | Resolve by | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Alignment Healthcare files a lawsuit challenging CMS Star Ratings measures or methodologies by December 31, 2026. | Med | Dec 31, 2026 | Open |
| Oct 9, 2026 | CD&R and McKesson complete their acquisition of Option Care Health (announced 2026-10-06 at $32.05 per share) by June 30, 2027. | Med | Jun 30, 2027 | Open |
| Sep 8, 2026 | American Health Intel reaches 1,000 newsletter subscribers by March 31, 2027 | Low | Mar 31, 2027 | Open |
| Aug 31, 2026 | CMS does not grant NAACOS's request to extend ACO REACH through 2027, and ACO REACH sunsets as originally scheduled on December 31, 2026, with no publicly confirmed bridge for participants awaiting a LEAD Model decision. | Med | Dec 31, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 25, 2026 | The Outpatient Surgery Access Act of 2026 (H.R.8091 / S.4963), which would tie ASC Medicare payment updates to the hospital market basket and drop the ASC budget-neutrality adjustment, does not clear committee or reach a floor vote in either chamber by December 31, 2026, continuing the pattern of identical bills introduced every Congress since 2021 that have never advanced. | High | Dec 31, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 21, 2026 | CMS's final TAVR NCD (expected by September 13, 2026) retains the dual-operator heart-team requirement (interventional cardiologist plus cardiac surgeon) despite the proposal to remove it, given unified pushback from five medical societies | Med | Sep 13, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Knox Lane's $437 million take-private acquisition of Cross Country Healthcare closes by the end of Q3 2026 as guided | High | Sep 30, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 12, 2026 | CY2027 Home Health PPS proposed rule behavior-adjustment cut survives into final rule (published ~Nov 2026) in some form despite industry comment pressure | Med | Nov 30, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 7, 2026 | The CY2027 Home Health final rule (expected by early November 2026) finalizes a permanent and/or temporary behavior-adjustment cut in some form despite industry comment pressure | Med | Nov 30, 2026 | Open |
| Jul 7, 2026 | DEA and HHS act before the December 31, 2026 expiration so telemedicine controlled-substance prescribing flexibility does not lapse (fifth extension or permanent rule) | High | Jan 1, 2027 | Open |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Following the July 31, 2026 comment close, 7-hydroxymitragynine (kratom compound) is placed in Schedule I by temporary scheduling order before the end of Q1 2027 | Med | Mar 31, 2027 | Open |
| Jul 6, 2026 | American Health Intel reaches 1,000 newsletter subscribers by September 1, 2026 What happened · resolved Sep 8, 2026Missed. We set a low-confidence target of 1,000 subscribers by September 1, then spent the summer rebuilding on a new membership platform with signups closed. The list opens now; a new subscriber call goes on the ledger today. | Low | Sep 1, 2026 | Miss |